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,THE dollar index which measures the US currency against a basket of six currency traded softer during the week under review.
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Global forex market
THE dollar index which measures the US currency against a basket of six currency traded softer during the week under review.
It closed week lower by 1.04% to 92.059, marking the lowest in nearly three weeks, tracking the easing US Treasury yields after both FOMC meeting minutes and Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech reaffirmed the Fed’s patience on keeping an accommodative monetary policy.
In the FOMC meeting minutes, Fed officials expect the economy to gain substantially, but they see much more progress is needed before adjusting the ultra-easy policy. Powell, on the other hand, suggested the threat of inflation in 2021 that has rattled bond buyers may not persist.
On a much positive note, President Biden announced that every adult in the US will be vaccinated by April 19, two weeks ahead of his initial schedule on May 1.
Separately, market players welcomed the IMF’s upward revision in global growth forecast to 6.0% in 2021 from its 5.5% forecast in January, a rate that has not been seen since 1970 (2020: -3.3%).
The US economy was projected to grow by 6.4% – the fastest since 1984 (2020: -3.5%).
Brent crude oil prices fell 2.56% to US$63.20 per barrel (Year-to-date average = US$61.5 per barrel) due to: (1) Covid-19 resurgence threatening demand recovery; and (2) speculations of Opec intending to increase production going forward as the US started to produce more in the shale fields.
The euro, which makes up almost 58% of the dollar index, benefited from the dollar’s decline.
It appreciated by 1.32% to 1.19, hitting the highest in nearly three weeks to emerge as the outperformer in the G10 space during the week under review.
However, domestic Covid-19 developments continued to show a lack of substantial progress.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is reportedly in favour of a short nationwide lockdown to help stem rising coronavirus figures. The consideration came as Germany struggled to contain the third wave due to the sluggish vaccination campaign.
The pound nosedived 0.70% to 1.37, the weakest since March 25 due to further disruption to the UK’s vaccine rollout as well as the unwinding of long positions against the pound.
The UK’s pace of jabs has significantly slowed at the beginning of the month given delays in shipments from India and testing of 1.7 million AZ/Oxford doses. At this juncture, the supply constraints are expected to last through April. The yen posted its first weekly gains in two weeks, up 1.29% to 109.3, the strongest since March 26 following the narrowing interest rate differential against the US treasury yields.
Nonetheless, key economic data release this week pointed to an improving macro environment in the Japan. This includes: (1) March Consumer Confidence jumping to 36.1 versus 33.8 in February, marking a 13-month high; and (2) February preliminary leading index rose to 99.7 compared to 98.5 in January.